My playoff predictions for the 1RD round playoff series that stars on Tuesday.
West
Pacific
1P Calgary vs Dallas 1WC
This is the 3rd all time matchup between Calgary and Dallas and Dallas has won both previous series once as the Minnesota North stars in 1981 and as Dallas in their most recent series in the 2020 bubble.
Regular season record vs each other:
Calgary 2-0-1 11-9+2
Dallas 1-2-0 9-11-2
My X-Factors for each team for the series: Jason Robertson vs Johnny Gaudreau. Both of these players have been key to their respective teams success and they will need to continue that success so their teams have a shot at winning the series. First with Robertson, as he has been a amazing offensive powerhouse once agin this year on a line with Hintz and Pavelski. While Robertson was just shy of a point per game pace last year he was over that pace this year getting 41 goals and 79 points in 74 games and both were career highs and has played out of his mind with a 40 goals season in his second year. Now I think it is safe to say that Dallas offense and playoff hopes live and die with that top line so if Robertson can continue to produce I see Dallas having a shot but if he and the top line dry up then this is going to be a quick series. Meanwhile for Gaudreau he is a pending UFA and this could be his last year in Calgary and after the regular season he is quite arguably their best player after he finally hit the 40 goal plateau and got way past the century mark by putting up 115 points which was tied for the second best point total in the NHL this season and he is going to need to be good given his track record in the playoffs. In recent playoffs Gaudreau has been almost invisible in the playoffs not producing and bringing his line mates down so if he can keep up this production and keep his line mates playing at elite levels then Calgary has a great chance to win this series but if Gaudreau of past playoffs returns and he is once again unproductive in the playoffs with his great top line then this could be a short series but in this series the best players have got to produce to have a chance to win the series.
Who has the advantage in my opinion:
Offensively: Calgary. I don’t think this comes as much surprise as both teams top lines have been money this year but it’s the depth where the transparency happens as the Flames other forwards have also been productive this year while the bottom end of Dallas forwards have not had much offense so when it comes to complete team offenses Calgary has the edge.
Defensively: Dallas. While both teams
have very good D-Corps the Stars have probably one of the best top 4’s in the NHL this season. While both top pairings can play and produce I think the Stars second pairing can produce better then the Flames and the Stars have a lot more options with experience for their 3rd pairing then Calgary.
Goaltending: Calgary. The Flames have a great duo in their starter Markstrom and their backup Vladar and if the tandem is Oettinger Wedgewood then I think the Flames have a big advantage but if Holtby can come back and be the backup and would close the gap but I still wouldn’t bet against the veteran who lead the league in shutouts this year.
Matchup I am most intrigued by: who scores more between the top lines. Both teams are great and while Dallas has a more productive D-Corp and Calgary’s bottom 6 forwards can produce more the real exciting part will be to see who scores more points in this series between the top lines. In Dallas the line of Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski combined for a whopping 105 goals and 232 points in the regular season and literal carried this team to the playoffs while the Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk produced 124 goals and 301 points in the regular season so the team who’s top line produces more will be the winner of the series in my opinion.
My Prediction is DAL in 7 games.Reasons: these teams are a lot closer then people think and I believe we will be in for a fantastic series but here is why I think Dallas will win. First this team was the best team that I saw in all 8 series that could be poised for a upset. The Flames have a history of being a amazing regular season team but when it comes playoff time they fizzle and after the stunning come from behind series win over Calgary 2 years ago in the bubble it is just my gut feeling that the Stars have what it takes to win. Secondly I think that the Stars top line will find a way to outperform the Flames top line. The Stars top line wasn’t as productive as the Flames top line in the regular season but they were more important and not only do I think they will outscore Calgary’s top line but I think Calgary’s top line will follow the example of recent playoff series and fizzle out in the playoffs. And finally I think that Oettinger will stunningly outplay Markstrom in net and I know it is hard to go toe to toe in net with a Dach veteran like Markstrom who just has the most shutouts by a goalie this year but I think that Oettinger is really undervalued so while Calgary has a lot better regular season then the Stars did, these are the reasons I am picking Dallas to upset in 7.
My Projected lineup
Calgary
J.Gaudreau-E.Lindholm-M.Tkachuk
A.Mangiapane-M.Backlund-T.Toffoli
D.Dube-C.Jarnkrok-B.Coleman
M.Lucic-R.Carpenter-T.Lewis
N.Hanafin-R.Andersson
O.Kylington-C.Tanev
N.Zadorov-E.Gudbranson
J.Markstrom
Dallas
J.Robertson-R.Hintz-J.Pavelski
J.Benn-T.Seguin-D.Gurianov
V.Namestnikov-R.Faksa-A.Radulov
M.Raffl-L.Glendening-J.Kiviranta
R.Suter-M.Heiskanen
E.Lindell-J.Klingberg
T.Harley-J.Hakanpaa
J.Oettinger
Central
1C Colorado vs Nashville 2WC
This will be the second all time meeting between the Avalanche and the Predators and Nashville has won the only previous meeting winning in 6 games back in 2018.
Regular season record bs each other:
Nashville 3-1-0 17-16+1
Colorado 1-1-2 16-17-1
My X-Factors for each team for the series: Matt Duchene vs Gabriel Landeskog. These two veteran forwards are going to need to be key contributors for their respective teams if their teams are going to have a shot at winning this series. For Duchene he was talked about being moved in the offseason as he wasn’t playing up to his $8 Million dollar contract but I think Nashville is glad they didn’t trade him as Duchene not only had a productive year which he hasn’t had for a few seasons, but he also had a career high in goals with 43 and points with 86 and has become a key part of Nashville’s top 6. Now if he can continue to produce and up the level of play to his line mates Forsberg and Granlund then even though they are playing the best in the West I think Nashville has a shot but if playoff Duchene barely produces at all then I can’t see the Preds winning the series. As for Colorado Gabriel Landeskog is their captain and plays a crucial role on the Avalanche top line and while he played over a point per game pace this season he has missed a lot as he does have 59 points in 51 games but hasn’t played since March 10th and how fast he gets up to speed could be crucial for Colorado. If he shakes of the rust relatively quickly and is he’s usual self producing on the top line with Mackinnon and Rantanen then this will be a short series but if it takes a few games for him to shake off the rust and the top line isn’t producing then I think Nashville would gain a edge but these two’s production level could spin the series one way or another I feel.
Who has the advantage in my opinion:
Offensively: Colorado. I don’t really think it should even be close cause when you have a formidable top line that is way better then Nashville’s top line and you still have enough talent to put Lehkonen and Compher who are top 6 caliber players on your 3rd line I think it speaks for itself.
Defensively: Colorado. Now I think defence is a little closer then offense in terms of whose better, but right now I would still have to go with Colorado having the better D-Corp as both teams have a Norris favourite on the blue line, the Avalanche also have a amazing amount of talent, youth and experience while Nashville also has talent on their blue line but are a lot less experienced in playoff games then the Avalanche are.
Goaltending: Nashville. On one condition and that is Saros is able to start either 1 of the first two games. I think a Saros Rittich tandem is better then Kuemper and Francouz, and Saros in my opinion is a better goalie then Kuemper but if Saros doesn’t play until game 3 or 4 or even in the first round, not only is Colorado the better team with goalies in Kuemper but also the Predators might not get that game saving stop that the need to win the series.
Matchup I am most intrigued by: the battle on the blue line between the two Norris favourites in Josi and Makar: these two defensemen could have very much ell been in elite company this year as top defensemen if they just played a few more games as Josi put up a amazing 96 points in 80 regular season games and Makar had 28 goals in 77 games this year and while it is rare to see a 20 goal scoring defensemen or a D-Men who gets to 90 points, a 100 point D-Men and 30 goal D-Men is relatively unheard of so far the better of these two defensemen should give their team a fighting chance in this series.
My Prediction is COL in 5 games.Reasons: the Avalanche were the best team in the West in the regular season and I don’t think that was a fluke and I would not be surprised if they make this a short series but here are the reasons I am choosing Colorado. First I feel as though they have more of a ability to put the puck in the net then the Preds do as the Avalanche will be able to and with Landeskog retuning from injury allowing more depth at the forward position and with a defence that can score at every turn, I think that they will outscore Nashville easily even with Nashville having good goal scorers like Duchene and Forsberg. Second is that Saros is not starting the first two games of the series and I can’t see the series being won by Nashville if they fall behind 2-0 in their series really quickly whereas they might have had a shot with Saros, because Saros is one of the leagues best goalies and without his timely saves I can’t see them having a fighting chance. And finally with this team not getting the presidents trophy and winning the west I can see them going all the way and although the Preds have played well as underdogs playing a heavily better offensive team a slightly better defensive team and playing this series at least at the starter without Saros just spells disaster for Nashville and is why I see Colorado winning the series in five.
My Projected lineup
Colorado
G.Landeskog-N.Mackinnon-M.Rantanen
A.Burakovsky-N.Kadri-V.Nichushkin
A.Lehkonen-A.Newhook-J.T Compher
A.Cogliano-N.Sturm-L.O’Connor
D.Toews-C.Makar
J.Manson-S.Girard
B.Byram-E.Johnson
D.Kuemper
Nashville
F.Forsberg-M.Granlund-M.Duchene
E.Tolvanen-R.Johansen-L.Kunin
Y.Trenin-C.Sissons-T.Jeannot
N.Cousins-M.McCarron-P.Tomasino
R.Josi-D.Fabbro
M.Ekholm-A.Carrier
M.Borowiecki-M.Benning
D.Rittich
East
Atlantic
1A Florida vs Washington 2WC
This is the first ever playoff matchup between the Panthers and Capitals since Florida entered the league in 1993.
Regular season record vs each other:
Florida 2-1-0 13-12+1
Washington 1-1-1 12-13-1
My X-Factors for each team for the series: Sam Reinhart vs Vitek Vanecek. These two could be crucial to their teams playoff success and if they can out play the other I think the series will shift in that direction. Sam Reinhart was acquired in the offseason and has done a lot more then I think anyone expected before the season as he not only put up a lot of points he was over a point per game getting 33 goals and 82 points in 78 games played this year and the most surprising part of it is he played a majority of this season on the 3rd line. Now if the Caps can find someway to shutdown the Barkov and Huberdeau lines, then depth scoring because hugely important and given the fact that Reinhart is their best bottom 6 forward I would have to say that if he can produce consistently then this will be a short series but if he fails to get much offense going then this could get bad for Florida so he will need to produce. As for Washington Vitek Vanecek has been the better of the two goalies this year and if I was Washington I would start him over Samsonov after he had 20 wins and a decent .908 SV% and a 2.67 GAA this year while Samsonov did win more games then Vanecek his numbers of .906 SV% and a 3.02 GAA are worse then Vanecek and would make sense to start him in the playoffs. Now if Vanecek can play superbly and get the drops when Washington needs them then Washington has a shot to win this series but if Vanecek and maybe Samsonov don’t play to well then the Caps don’t have a shot to win this series but if either team is to win these two X-Factors will have to play well.
Who has the advantage in my opinion:
Offensively: Florida. For this position I don’t think it is even close as the top 6 is slightly better then Washington and the top 9 is even more better then Washington’s and when it comes to depth at the position I don’t think it comes even close and Florida could have the best forward depth in the entire NHL.
Defensively: Florida. This position is a lot closer then the offense and I feel that the difference here has got to be Ekblad. With the Panthers best defender coming back from injury he can make this Panthers D one of the best in the league and with the additions made and Ekblad returning to game action makes their D-Corp head and shoulders above Washington’s where it would have been a lot closer had Ekblad not been there.
Goaltending: Florida. As good as Vanecek and Samsonov have been and now they have a bit of experience in the playoffs, the Panthers are way better. Bobrovsky has found his form again and if he can play like he did with Columbus a couple years ago in the playoffs then they have the best goalie and even backup Knight is better then the other two in my opinion so if I am looking for a team to get a key save I am going with Florida.
Matchup I am most intrigued by: which defence winds up getting more points in this series. These two have defences that are capable of producing offensively at keen times in games and we all now that Ekblad and Carlson are definitely going to help score in this series but the other defensemen on the teams will also need to get some points too in order for their teams to win.
My Prediction is FLA in 5 games.Reason: the Panthers are the best NHL team this year and while I believe they could have problems later on, but for now I think they will easily handle the Caps and here is why I think they will. First their offense as I said before is the best in the league and that is going to be a huge advantage as even though the Capitals have a decent defence and two young goalies who have a bit of playoff experience, playing what could be the best forward group in the NHL is not a recipe for success for Washington so with their team being younger and less well equipped I think the offense will run all over them. Secondly I think that Bobrovsky might steal a couple of high scoring affairs in this series after how he played in the regular season. While Bobrovsky played in the playoffs last year the play of Bobrovsky this year reminds me of when Columbus upset the Bolts in that stunning series win a few years ago and if Bobrovsky is playing this good going into the playoffs then it will be really hard for Washington to outscore Florida which is the only way I can see them winning. And lastly I know that the Panthers won the presidents trophy and I think at some point that will cost them but for now being the best NHL team means something and I believe that with home ice advantage and the best offense and a great goalie behind them, while the Caps have a great team (led by goal scorer Ovechkin) I just don’t think there will be any chance and that is why I have Florida in 5 games.
My Projected lineup
Florida
C.Verhaeghe-A.Barkov-A.Duclair
J.Huberdeau-S.Bennett-C.Giroux
M.Marchment-A.Lundell-S.Reinhart R.Lomberg-E.Luostarinen-P.Hornqvist
A.Ekblad-M.Weegar
G.Forsling-R.Gudas
B.Chiarot-B.Montour
S.Bobrovsky
Washington
A.Ovechkin-E.Kuznetsov-T.Wilson
A.Mantha-N.Backstrom-T.J Oshie
M.Johansson-L.Eller-C.Sheary
J.Larsson-N.Dowd-G.Hathaway
M.Fehervary-J.Carlson
D.Orlov-N.Jensen
T.V Reimsdyk-J.Schultz
V.Vanecek
Metro
2M New York R vs Pittsburgh 3M
This will be the 8th all time meeting between the two teams and the Penguins have won 5 of the 7 previous playoff series including the most recent matchup in 2016 when Pittsburgh won that series in 5 games.
Regular season record vs each other:
New York R 3-1-0 11-4+7
Pittsburgh 1-3-0 4-11-7
My X-Factor for each team for the series: Andrew Copp vs Rickard Rakell: both of these forwards were deadline acquisitions by their respective teams and for their teams to have a shot at winning this series I feel that these two would have to produce. Copp has been mostly regarded as a middle six forward until the last few seasons and his point production skyrocketed not just this season but especially once he was moved to NYR, as he had 35 points in 56 games with Winnipeg, but his production was on a whole other level with New York as he put up 18 points in 16 games playing with Panarin. Now he was injured over the last few games so he needs to get healthy quickly because if he misses too many games then Panarin’s production might go down and then Rangers winning the series could be in jeopardy, but if Copp comes back for game 1 or 2 and quickly find his chemistry with Panarin and they put up lots of points then I think NYR should win the series. As for Rakell he was acquired by Pittsburgh and while he hasn’t been as productive after the deadline as Copp, he will still be a big factor in my opinion to Pittsburgh’s success. Rakell had only 28 points and 16 goals in 51 games with Anaheim this year but was playing a lot better with Pittsburgh as he has 13 points in 19 games with Pittsburgh and has become a playmaker having 9 assists in those 19 games. So with his prominent role in Pittsburgh’s top 6 if he can produce while on the Malkin line and take off pressure from Crosby and his line then Pittsburgh has a shot to win the series, but if he can’t produce and the second line dries up, then I can’t see Pittsburgh winning the series. So the play of these two acquisitions could tip the series one way or another in my opinion.
Who has the advantage in my opinion:
Offensively: New York R. The Rangers have a much deeper and more talented forward group then the Penguins with the likes of Kreider Panarin, Zibanejad and Copp in my opinion being better then guys like Crosby, Malkin, Rust and Rakell and as depth forwards go the Rangers have the better group so when it comes to who will score more goals, my gut feeling says it is NYR.
Defensively: Pittsburgh. Not much of a advantage here but a slight one as I think while the Rangers do have the young and maybe more productive top 4 then the Pens do, I think the depth on Pittsburgh is a little better as I would say that while they may not produce as much, I think the Penguins would better handle a injury to a blue liner then the Rangers would.
Goaltending: New York R. Just two words to say who I think is better, Igor Shesterkin. This kid was making saves left and right, led the NHL in GAA and SV%, and is in the conversation as a Hart candidate, a trophy that Goalies rarely ever win. So with Shesterkin doing all of that and they have a capable backup in Georgiev this was going to be a major Rangers advantage way before Jarry would be ruled out the first two games due to injury.
Matchup I am most intrigued by: which team will have the more productive bottom 6. Depth scoring is always huge in a playoff series and is crucial to help win a Stanley cup, but in this series I am real interested in seeing who’s bottom 6 is better. While I would probably say that the Penguins would have the more productive 4th line, placing guys like Rodrigues and Heinen there who are having career years will help them, I think the bottom 6 as a whole should belong to the Rangers as NYR has a bottom six that could consist of Vatrano/Kakko, Lafreniere, Chytil, Goodrow, Hunt, Reaves for his physical abilities and have about 3-4 more players who could be productive in that role so while a bottom 6 could be needed to make a cup run I think it will be real important in this series.
My Prediction is NYR in 6 games.Reasons: the Rangers were able to get home ice advantage and were very much ahead of 3rd place Pittsburgh and I believe that year another home eastern conference team will win the series and here are the reasons for picking them. First I feel that their offense will be able to outscore the Penguins. Now this isn’t because DeSmith will be starting games with Jarry injured but more to the fact that I feel with what looks like a lethal top 6 and a ton of depth forwards who could play game in game out throughout the series and help produce as depth forwards and I feel that they will be able to heavily outscore Pittsburgh in this series. Secondly is that with Shesterkin in net and the way he has been the backbone helping this team to the playoffs will shut the door on most nights and that he will keep his Vezina trophy play going in the playoffs and be a big piece in this series. And lastly I feel that the Rangers power play which can be lethal at times will out play Pittsburgh’s power play and that the penalty kill and special teams will be in The Rangers favour and with a guy like Kreider who can score plenty of PPG’s, the Rangers will get the victory in special teams and with the forward group and Shesterkin better in Nee York these are the reasons I am picking Rangers in 6.
My Projected lineup
New York R
C.Kreider-M.Zibanejad-F.Vatrano
A.Panarin-R.Strome-A.Copp
A.Lafreniere-F.Chytil-K.Kakko
B.Goodrow-K.Rooney-R.Reaves
R.Lindgren-A.Fox
K.Miller-J.Trouba
J.Braun-B.Schneider
I.Shesterkin
Pittsburgh
J.Guentzel-S.Crosby-B.Rust
K.Kapanen-E.Malkin-R.Rakell
B.McGinn-J.Carter-D.Heinen
E.Rodrigues-T.Blueger-B.Boyle
B.Dumoulin-K.Letang
M.Pettersson-J.Marino
M.Matheson-C.Ruhwedel
C.DeSmith
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