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So today we have the eliminated Maple Leafs who were the 4th team eliminated from playoff contention who have definitely had a surprisingly bad year as not many people predicted that last years Atlantic champs would fall off a cliff this year and be the first Atlantic team eliminated, they are the 4th team in my offseason preview series, as I will breakdown why the Maple Leafs missed the playoffs and what I personally think they could do in the offseason to improve their team to try and make it better for next year.
1st up the Maple Leafs stats for the 25-26 season
32-31-13 77 6 games Left
235 16th GF
264 T-29th GA
PP% 20.1 T-18th
PK% 81.9 T-5th
Goal Scoring Leaders
Tavares 29
Matthews 27
Nylander 26
Point Leaders
Nylander 72
Tavares 65
Knies 60
So when looking at the Maple Leafs stats for the 25-26 season they don’t have as much bad stats as the Canucks and Hawks do but they shouldn’t be proud of any of their stats , now offensively this team which has so many good weapons (Matthews, Tavares, Knies etc) should be doing a ton better scoring then they did this year but their offensive stats aren’t terrible as they have a few 20 goal scorer, a few players who have had 60+ points and even looking at their goal scoring and power play it isn’t terrible as it is middle of the pack with their offense ranking exactly middle of the pack ranking 16th and their power play ranks slightly blow that at 18th in the NHL so the depth scoring could’ve been a bit better and losing Marner definitely contributed to that, but it isn’t terrible and looking at their PK, it is actually all right too as they rank 5th in the PK stats with a 81.9% PK, so similar to the Hawks their penalty kill has been rather good and doesn’t need much change but their defence as a whole stick as they have a bottom 5 defensive unit in the NHL that is currently ranked 29th worst in the NHL and I know injuries to goalies and key defensive defenders will hurt but even with the injuries the Leafs shouldn’t be that bad, so all in all they have respectable offensive stats that look like they can be improved, and had a killer PK this year but the thing that needs the most work in the offseason has to be the teams defence.
3 Reasons I believe they missed
1.) Plethora of injuries : now I think the main reason the Maple Leafs were not been able to find success this year has to be the fact that the Maple Leafs dealt with a ton of injuries especially on their D-Corp, now coming into this year they looked like they had a pretty good all around blueline but early in the year Tanev went down with a injury and then Carlo missed a chunk of time do to a injury and missing two key defensive defenders was terrible for the Leafs, a few other defenders also suffered injuries, Stolarz and Woll were injured so much Hildeby might as well have been the teams backup all year and even some of their forwards such as Joshua, Matthews and Nylander amongst others have missed a big chunk of time and only 8 of their skaters have not missed more then 10 games so the injuries affected the Leafs tremendously and was a huge reason they missed the postseason.
2.) Defensive woes: now the 2nd reason I feel they didn’t do well was the bad woes they had on the defensive side. Now a lot of their defensive problems this year stemmed from the injuries to key guys (Tanev, Carlo etc), but beyond that just as a team they weren’t great defensively as they couldn’t keep the puck out of their net which is why they have a bottom 5 ranked defence and in the absence of guys like Tanev and Carlo other defenders like OEL and Reilly didn’t step up defensively which let their goalies hang out to dry and Stolarz and Woll were also injured at times which thrust Hildeby into playing more games then he probably should have, so while injuries were a factor the defensive collapse was a huge reason that the Leafs missed the Postseason.
3.) Losing Marner : now the final reason I believe the Maple Leafs were not able to make the playoffs was the loss of Marner on the team, now Marner had been a staple in Toronto but they DET him last year after he said he wouldn’t extend with the Leafs and then with the cap space they brought in Roy, Maccelli and Joshua to replace the production from Marner, and that never happened as not only does Marner have more points then those 3 combined this year but he also is a sound defensive forward (why he has been nominated for the Selke in the past) and I think not having his defensive prowess really did hurt the Leafs and I think moving on from him, the impact that would have on the Leafs is larger then people thought, so I believe the fact that they had a lot of injuries, the lack of a defensive game and the loss of Marner were the 3 main reasons in my opinion that the Maple Leafs missed the postseason.
Projected cap hit: $80.86
Projected cap space: $23.14
Significant Pending UFA’s
C.Jarnkrok 6-2-8 in 51GP
T.Boyd 10-19-29 in 34GP (AHL)
T.Stecher 3-10-13 in 59GP
M.Benning 3-10-13 in 29GP (AHL)
Significant Pending RFA’s
N.Robertson 14-16-30 in 72GP
M.Maccelli 14-23-37 in 65GP
J.Quillan 12-21-33 in 38GP (AHL)
H.Thrun 5-18-23 in 49GP (AHL)
W.Villeneuve 3-25-28 in 58GP (AHL)
Now when it comes to their UFA’s and RFA’s they don’t have a ton and there isn’t really a ton of big names here either, I think the Leafs probably don’t bring back any of their UFA’s as Boyd and Benning are both depth guys who were mostly in the AHL this year and I think they will look for opportunities elsewhere, same with Jarnkrok as he has been in the trade rumour mill for quite some time and I feel that after all of the discussions he will get a fresh start elsewhere, now the UFA I could see Toronto bring back is Troy Stecher who was claimed off of Waivers and fit in quite well on the 3rd pair, I think if it was a 1-2 year deal with a reasonable AAV he could stay but besides Stecher I don’t think the other 3 will be back, meanwhile with their RFA’s I think Quillan and Villeneuve who both had solid AHL seasons will sign low end short term deals to stay with the Leafs, I feel there is a strong likelihood that Thrun doesn’t get qualified by Toronto and then I don’t think the Leafs would not qualify Maccelli or Robertson but I am not going to say with 100% certainty that they will be back as I think Robertson stands a good chance to get dealt this offseason and while I think Maccelli is more likely to stay, if he wants more money then Toronto wants to give him then I believe he could get dealt too, but that is what I think of the Leafs UFA’s and RFA’s.
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Current draft capital for Toronto in 2026: 6
1RD:
2RD:
3RD: TOR, OTT*
4RD: ANA
5RD: TOR, COL
6RD: SJ
7RD:
Just real quick here the Maple Leafs, they don’t have a lot of draft capital although they may be able to add more by the draft, now unlike the Canucks or Blackhawks that we have previously discussed the Leafs are not a team who has been bulking up their draft capital as they have been moving pick for instant upgrades for a while now so having only 6 picks in total isn’t surprising but is terrible for the Leafs, now I do think that they could be worse and they did get some picks at the deadline but having no 1st or 2nd round picks would really hurt this team for the upcoming draft, so for a team who was one of the first eliminated this is a terrible amount of capital for the Leafs entering the offseason.
Lastly I look at 3 things I think they should look at in the offseason to improve
1.) Re-work blueline (move Reilly, Carlo, add another top 4 D): now we look at 3 ways I feel the Maple Leafs could improve in the offseason to become a bit more competitive next year, so the first thing I believe the Leafs should do is re-work the blueline, as I think after being one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL a change is needed on the blueline in the offseason, now Tanev should hopefully be healthy and that would be a big boost for the Leafs but I think changes have to go beyond that, I believe the Leafs will have to move a few defenders this offseason whether it is Carlo who hasn’t looked like himself since arriving in Toronto, maybe Morgan Reilly who some credible insiders have pointed out the Leafs could look to deal and give a fresh start to this offseason, they could move OEL who was heavily mentioned at the deadline or someone else but a feel at least 1 defender if not more have to be moved and I fully expect them to be in on some defenders in the offseason whether it is free agents like Ferraro or Murphy or trade chips like Hamilton or Parayko I am not exactly sure but I feel like the top priority for the Leafs in the offseason has to be shaking up the blueline.
2.) Move Stolarz or Woll: now another thing I believe the Maple Leafs have to figure out this offseason is which goalie they will keep going forward, now the Leafs went into the year with Stolarz and Woll as their tandem but both goalies dealt with various injuries throughout the year that made a tandem of those two almost never play together, however due to those injuries it meant that Hildeby got quite a long look at the NHL level and while he was probably thrown into more games then he should’ve been, he didn’t look out of place and seems to be a guy who can hold down the backup role next year, so with that in mind and the he Leafs still having two solid tandem goalies a lot of people do believe the Leafs will move at least one in the offseason and I would agree, if they can get a haul for one of their goalies who both have term left and run with a Woll or Stolarz/ Hildeby tandem next year it may be a smart move going forward as I think Hildeby is a really good goalie, but I got to think that moving one of Stolarz or Woll for a great package to allow Hildeby to be the NHL backup has to be a priority going into the offseason.
3.) Add 1-2 top 9 forwards: now another thing I really believe that the Maple Leafs need to do the in the offseason to compete a little more next year is adding a couple of solid top 9 forwards, now it looks like on top of the defence change may be needed in the bottom six as the Leafs look poised to make some subtractions to their depth scoring as it seems like Jarnkrok will leave as a UFA, Robertson and Domi stand good chances to get dealt and they may look to move on from 1 or 2 other guys and if they are moving off all of these guys then I believe they will go looking for more top 9 forwards who better fit in the Leafs 3rd or 2nd line, not exactly sure who they target but I wonder about guys like Rust, Marchessault or Namestnikov and there are probably others as well, so I think the Leafs need some more top 9 forwards and in my opinion along with shaking up the blueline and moving off of one of Woll or Stolarz I feel has to be the priorities for the Maple Leafs this offseason.
So those are my thoughts on the Maple Leafs, and what I think they should do in the offseason, now I feel like after the season they just add this year I don’t believe the Leafs will be able to have this be just a small blip in the radar and go back to making the playoffs next, they have a lot of good pieces and I could see their new GM be aggressive but I just think there are too many good teams in the East now for the Maple Leafs to contend for a playoff spot and sort of like Chicago I think they will compete and get close next year but will wind up missing cause the postseason by a few points especially if they do some wrong things in the offseason, but I would love to hear your thoughts below, are you surprised how bad the Maple Leafs were this year, do you think they keep all their Free Agents and could they add more draft capital by the draft and what do you guys think they could do in the offseason to improve for next year, love to hear your thoughts in the comments below and don’t forget to check out my YouTube channel as well.
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