Major trade to discuss surrounding St.Louis and Toronto.
Over the weekend we had a couple of trades and I am here to discuss both of them but one was substantially bigger than the other and we will get to that one first. So the trade is:
St.Louis Toronto Minnesota
2023 1RD (TOR) R.O’Reilly (25% retained on O’Reilly)
2023 3RD (OTT) N.Acciari 2025 4RD (TOR)
2024 2RD (TOR) J.Pillar
M.Abramov
A.Gaudette
(50% retained on O’Reilly)
Analysis: so it is a three team deal as the two many teams in this trade are St.Louis and Toronto, and Minnesota comes in as a third party broker to help the Maple Leafs get O’Reilly at only 25% of his original cap hit. Now I will start with the Maple Leafs, now some think that the Leafs may have given up too much draft capital in the trade for O’Reilly, but I think given they are in go for it now mode it isn’t as big of a price to pay as some people think, because if the Leafs get past the first round then that pick will most likely be in the mid to late 20’s, the 3rd pick will probably be 10-15, and I don’t think Toronto cares too much about next year right now, so I see this as a good deal for Toronto. Now they are getting O’Reilly and thanks to the salary retention on Minnesota and St.Louis behalf they get him for only $1.88 Million dollars on their cap which is great for the Leafs.
Now O’Reilly is not having too good of a season production wise this year, only having 12 goals and 19 points in 40 games with St.Louis, but he has been able to produce at high levels in the past including hitting at least 50 points in 9 consecutive seasons going into this year, and maybe with the Leafs weapons he can sort of find the old form again, and I originally thought that the Leafs would put him as their 3C and make a lethal Center group with Matthews, Tavares and O’Reilly, but in his first few games the Leafs put O’Reilly at 2nd line Center and moved Tavares to the wing which I think might be even better, as O’Reilly I think would thrive on the 2nd line as he could be the defensive forward, Tavares could be the goal scorer and Marner is a lethal playmaker so I think that line would be scary to go up against, and while he isn’t a top 6 LW like most people thought the Leafs would go after, I believe the O’Reilly deal will help the Maple Leafs top six extremely and I think his 2-way abilities will make him a huge asset for Toronto and the Leafs did have interest in him dating back a few months so I don’t think it is a surprise that the acquired him and I think he will be a key addition.
As for Acciari he is a really good 4th line, penalty killing forward and will be a very welcome addition to the Maple Leafs organization. Now Acciari signed a 1 year deal with the Blues in the offseason after spending the previous 3 seasons in Florida, where he was a productive player and had his career best season in Florida as well, but he went to St.Louis and hasn’t looked all too bad as he has his 2nd best point total in a season this year, getting consistent bottom six minutes for St.Louis and putting up 10 goals and 18 points in 54 games with the Blues before the trade. Now I think in Toronto he will probably get consistent 4th line minutes and will probably get a big chunk of penalty killing time with the Maple Leafs and I think with guys like Kerfoot and Engvall not producing as well as they have in recent seasons, they needed a good bottom six forward injected into the lineup to sort of fuel that bottom six a bit and I think Acciari will do just that for the Maple Leafs.
And lastly the Maple Leafs got Josh Pillar who was a 4RD pick in the 2021 draft by the Minnesota Wild, that the Wild shipped to the Leafs as part of the deal. Now Pillar is still playing over in juniors with Saskatoon and has done alright this year, putting up 4 goals and 12 points in 14 games but he isn’t getting much playing time with the team, but he has hovered around the point per game mark in each of his last three junior seasons so I think he definitely still has growing to do, but in 2-4 years he could be a good 3rd/4th line Center for the Maple Leafs and given the fact they lost a decent prospect in Abaramov in this deal, I think getting maybe a little lower valued prospect it still good. So the Maple Leafs do give up some decent draft capital in this trade, but they get a good middle six veteran who is one of the best 2-way Center’s in the game and knows what it takes to win the Cup (was the Conn Smythe winner when the Blues won the cup in 2019), and Acciari who is a good bottom six forward and also knows what it takes to win in the playoffs, and a decent young prospect in return and I think the Maple Leafs are really going to like this trade, especially if they can beat the Bolts and finally break the curse and make it to round 2 of the playoffs.
Next with the Blues side of this, now we knew Tarasenko wanted out of St.Louis and he wasn’t going to be back which explained why the Blues were so willing to move him, but I thought that the Blues might’ve wound up signing O’Reilly given he was their captain and a real good player and veteran to have in that locker room, but given what they were able to get for O’Reilly and Acciari combined I think it was the smart move by St.Louis, and I guess they could still sign O’Reilly in the offseason if he gets to free agency but I think they will be very happy with this trade.
1st off the Blues will get another 1st Round pick in this years deep 2023 draft. Now the Blues only had their 1st round pick in the first two rounds of this years draft as they gave the Rangers their 2RD pick for this year in the Buchnevich a while ago, but now thanks to the O’Reilly and Tarasenko deals the Blues now have 5 picks in the 1st 3 rounds of this years draft. Now the Maples Leafs pick will most likely be mid to late 20’s in this years draft given how good of a regular season they are having, and the Rangers/Stars pick will also be most likely be in the late 20’s given the fact St.Louis gets the lower of the two, but to get two 1st round picks in this years very talented and deep draft is pretty good for the Blues and should definitely help them to speed up this retool, and they also get the Sens 3RD round pick in the deal that Toronto got in the Matt Murray deal, and given Ottawa is not trending to be a playoff team, that pick could be in the top 10-15 in the 3rd round of this years draft so these two draft selections give the Blues some more high picks and strengths their draft capital as well. And the Maple Leafs have the Blues their 2nd round pick in next years draft which now gives the Blues 9 draft selections for next year (all of theirs plus the Leafs 2nd and Rangers 3rd or 4th), so these draft selections give the Blues a lot of options as they could draft some real quality players to help their team 2-4 years in the future or they could move a couple picks to get players to help right now so it is a good situation for the Blues to be in with them not trending to be a playoff team.
Then they get Adam Gaudette who is a depth forward and hasn’t been more then a AHL forward over the past few seasons. Now he started his career with Vancouver and had his best season the year the NHL stopped due to COVID, getting a career high 12 goals and 33 points in 59 games, but in the two seasons that followed he declined, spending time with Vancouver, Chicago and Ottawa and put up 10 goals and 25 points in 98 games and then signed with the Leafs in the offseason as a depth forward and worked really well in the AHL as he had 20 goals and 34 points in 40 AHL games with the Marlies and has since gotten into a couple games with the Blues AHL affiliate, but given the fact that the Blues have some injuries, they could move Barbashev and Leivo, and Gaudette has NHL experience I wouldn’t be surprised if he was called up later in the season at some point but to make the contracts work Gaudette came over and could be a useful depth forward for the Blues.
And finally here with Abramov, who is still a good young prospect who still has some NHL potential. Now Abramov was taken in the 4th round of the 2019 draft and he spent a few seasons over in juniors putting up a over point per game season in the QMJHL, but has spent the past two seasons playing in the AHL. Now last year which was his first pro season he played a decent amount in the AHL and put up some pretty good point totals having 7 goals and 28 points in 66 games for the Toronto’s AHL team and Abramov had done well in the AHL this year as well putting up 6 goals and 16 points in 34 AHL games and I think in a year or two he could be a decent bottom six Center for the Blues, as I think in time he could be a decent 3rd line Center and he definitely has some potential so to get him in this deal as well is great, as the Blues get a late 1st round pick, a high 3rd round pick, a 2nd round pick in next years draft, a middle six forward prospect in Abramov and a depth forward in Gaudette in exchange for two players who were pending UFA’s and I think the fact that the Blues retained salary on O’Reilly (50% or $3.75 Million) made the deal better for Toronto so they were willing to give St.Louis more.
And finally with the Wild, their part in this isn’t as big but it was significant, as they basically acquired O’Reilly at 50% retained, and moved him to Toronto with 25% more retained (or $1.875 Million) to give the Leafs O’Reilly for two Million dollars and they also gave the Leafs Pillar, in exchange they get the Maple Leafs 2025 4th round pick for helping them facilitate the deal. So obviously Pillar wasn’t a big piece in their eyes so they were willing to move him to Toronto and given they are one of a handful of teams who have some cap space, using it to their advantage to get a decent pick is not too shabby at all. Now that gives the Wild 2 4th round picks in the 2025 draft and some more draft capital for the team as they will most likely be buyers before the deadline and getting some more draft capital it a smart move from Minnesota.
So all in all the Leafs get a couple of veteran forwards to help with their playoff run, and a young prospect who is a couple years away, the Blues get a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks, a depth player in Gaudette and a good prospect in Abramov, and for helping facilitate the move, the Wild get a 4th round draft pick. So I don’t know who wins this deal right now, as I think the Maple Leafs get some pretty good forwards and if they wind up Re-signing one of them or if they make it past round one this year then I definitely think they are the winners, but if the Blues can hit home with a couple of those picks, or Abramov develops into a good middle six forward, then I think the Blues may wind up winning this deal, but I would definitely like to hear your opinion on this deal and who you think won, and I definitely don’t feel this is the last deal for any of these teams, as I think the Leafs may try to upgrade the blueline to replace the loss of Muzzin, the Wild are still in the market for a forward and may have interest in JVR, Boeser or Domi, and the Blues still have Barbashev who a lot of people think will be moved prior to the deadline, and there has been some talk around the Blues possibly moving a D-Men whether it be Parayko, Krug or Faulk but definitely a good trade for all three teams and expect them to continue to be active.
And here is the other, smaller deal:
New York R Ottawa
Tyler Motte Julien Gauthier
COND 2023 7RD (NYR)
Analysis: the Rangers bring back a familiar face from last years Stanley Cup run as they get brilliant bottom six forward and energy guy Motte, in exchange for what I think is a reasonable package in Gauthier and a conditional 7th.
Now first for the Rangers, Gauthier was a player who has needed a fresh start over the past year or two so seeing him go is not to bad for NYR and they don’t lose too much draft capital with a 7th, but Bringing Motte back is a great addition for the Rangers. Now ever since the Canucks acquired Motte at the 2017-18 deadline, Motte has shown he is a really good bottom six forward in the NHL, as when he is healthy he has done great and his career best season came in his first full with Vancouver, putting up 16 points in 74 games, and was close to beating it last year before he was dealt, as he had 7 goals and 15 points in 49 games with Vancouver and was then dealt to the Rangers where he didn’t record a point in 9 games, but also got a couple of goals in the playoffs last year so he is a extremely talented bottom six forward, now after the Rangers couldn’t sign him to a extension, Motte wound up signing with Ottawa to be a good 3rd line forward, and he did deal with some injuries earlier this year, but has had a solid season so far putting up 3 goals and 9 points in 38 games and will now join the Rangers again. Now with the great depth the Rangers have in the top 9, I would expect Motte to play 4th line minutes and get penalty killing time as well and hopefully get some more points so he can get a new career high, but a great addition for the Rangers to get a good bottom six forward as well as someone who they are familiar with.
Now as for the Sens, this may be a sign of things to come, as they are not in a great spot in the position and aren’t trending to be a playoff team this year, so they could move some pending UFA’s as rentals and that is what they have done here. Now Gauthier has been a good 4th line forward over the past few seasons with the Rangers but has some times been more of a 13th forward in the organization and has occasionally gotten scratched, and there was some talk last offseason he would get moved, but he signed with the Rangers and remained with the team. Now Gauthier had 8 points in 30 games in the shortened season, and 7 points in 49 games last year, but was actually having a better year this season and has gotten a career high in points this year and actually has the same amount as Motte, as Gauthier has 6 goals and 9 points in 40 games with the Rangers and I think the fresh start will benefit Gauthier. Now I could see him get some 3rd line minutes in Ottawa sort of like Motte was getting, but I think he should at least be a consistent 4th line forward in Ottawa and I think that given he is a bit younger as well he may stay in Ottawa past this year as he is also a RFA, so if there is a good fit there I could definitely see Ottawa re-signing him so definitely a good addition for Ottawa, and they also get a 7th round pick that has a condition, and that is if NYR gets to round two of the playoffs, the puck will upgrade from a 7th round pick to the lower of the Jets or Rangers 6th round picks which the Rangers have, so the Sens will get a low 6th round pick if the the Rangers get to round two this year.
So a pretty good deal for both these teams, and I do think at least now the Rangers won the deal as they get a bottom six forward they are familiar with and don’t give up the return they did last year for Motte which was a 4th round pick, while the Sens get a young bottom six forward in Gauthier who could be there for the next few seasons and a 6th or 7th round pick as well to boost their draft capital a bit, I would like to know your opinion on the deal as well, as who do you think won the deal. I think the Rangers may have one more move in them as there has been a lot of talk that Kravtsov could be moved by the deadline and maybe the use Kravtsov to get another forward for the playoff run, while the Sens will probably move some more UFA’s before the deadline and even though they are looking for a defensemen to add to their team, expect guys like Watson, Holden and Talbot as well as Zaitsev if they can find a deal for him to be dealt by Ottawa but I could trade nonetheless by both eastern confrence teams.
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