With the Stanley Cup Final done I am looking at how the two teams who got there can rework their rosters in the offseason to get back to the Cup Final next year.
Tampa Bay
Notable UFA’s: Ondrej Palat, Nick Paul, Riley Nash, Jan Rutta, Fredrik Claesson
Notable RFA’s: Alexei Melnichuk
Draft Picks: TB 1RD, CHI 4RD, TB 5RD, TB 6RD, DET 6RD, TB 7RD, NYR 7RD
How did they make the Stanley Cup Final.
The Lightning are once again east champs as they finished the regular season with a respectable 51-23-8 record for 110 points which was able to get them 3rd in the Atlantic this year. That got them into a first round matchup with the Maple Leafs where it was a hard fought series but they were able to get of the first round with a 7 game series win, then they went up against the president trophy winning Panthers and while a lot of people though they were unmatched they showed just how much experience does to a team as they were able to sweep the Panthers and after being down 2-0, came back to beat the Rangers in 6 games in the eastern conference final in a really hard fought series and are now in the Cup Final for the 3rd consecutive year, this time facing the Colorado Avalanche and they are definitely a few reasons why I think they were able to get back to the Final this year. The first reason would have to be their experience. The pure knowledge needed to rebound and be a hugely resilient team come with experience and most of the guys on this team were in the past two Stanley cup wins so they know what it takes and what they have to do to make it to the cup. They always seem to have a resilient level where vente if they lose a game or two in the playoffs they know how to come back the next game and it is that sort of know how that I think is the main reason they are back in the Cup Final.
Secondly is the unbelievable factor that is Andrei Vasilevskiy and his uncanny ability to put up outstanding performances when he is either coming off a loss or in a elimination game. Vasilevskiy always seems to bring this poise to games when they matter most as he has proven time and time again this playoffs including multiple times against the Maple Leafs and in a big way against the Rangers and has even showed that poise in the Stanley Cup Final this year and I think Vasilevskiy’s outstanding play this year and the last few years has been a big reason why the Lightning have gone to 3 consecutive Stanley Cup Finals. And lastly would be the reconstructed 3rd line being extremely productive in this playoff run. The last two Stanley Cup runs the Lightning had a productive 3rd line of Coleman-Gourde-Goodrow but Coleman went to Calgary and Goodrow went to NYR vis free agency and Gourde was selected in the expansion draft so there 3rd line that they had last year was all gone but they were able to reconstruct it. They got Nick Paul and Brandon Hagel at the deadline but with Point mostly being injured in the playoffs Hagel has been playing 2nd line minutes and while his line hasn’t produced too many points the new third line has. The line of Perry-Paul-Colton has put up a amazing 19 points in 13 games and just like the other line before them they know when to put the puck in the net at key times and still having a really effective 3rd line has helped this Bolts team make it to the Final round and all of these things are huge factors in my opinion why the Lightning are back in the Stanley Cup Final for the 3rd consecutive season.
How can they improve in the offseason.
The Bolts have had a brilliant season as I mentioned above as they were able to get 3rd in the Atlantic with 110 points and then went on a nice run as they were able to slip past the Maple Leafs in 7, destroy the Panthers in 4 and win 4 straight after falling behind 2-0 in the Confrence Final against the Rangers and even though they were able to get back to the Final I still believe there is going to be some significant change to this Bolts team that has a lot of questions entering the offseason.
First in net as I believe they are one of the very few teams who will not be making any changes to the goaltending position. Now I don’t think the Lightning need to change anything in goal especially since they have the best goalie in the world right now in Vasilevskiy who is still signed. Vasilevskiy is still under contract at just under $10 Million dollars for the next 6 seasons and has proven time and time again that he is one of the best goalies in the world and given his numbers that have helped the Lightning to make the playoffs year after year it is no wonder why he is an all star goalie and I can’t see the Bolts moving on from him so he will remain the unquestioned starter in Tampa next season. As for their backup position the Bolts are also pretty god and don’t need a change as they still have good verteran backup Brian Elliott. Elliott played as a decent backup as that was all the Lightning needed with Vasilevskiy their starter as he put up a .912 SV% in only 19 games played and just before the season finished the Bolts extended him to a 1 year extension and given that he doesn’t need to play many games and is still good in the games he plays in I think keeping Elliott as the backup was the right and smart move. So to recap keep the 1-2 punch of Vasilevskiy as starter and Elliott as veteran backup for next year and after the great goaltending they produced this year I think it is definitely the right move.
Next is the defence where most of there defenders for next year are already there. The Bolts should still have Cernak, Sergachev and Hedman as 3 of their top 4 defensemen as Sergachev and Hedman showed in the playoffs just how valuable offensively they are and I still believe that Hedman is one of the top defenders in the NHL and will remain playing top line minutes especially given the fact that he is still signed for 3 years and is their best defender, Sergachev is a young cornerstone piece on the blue line and I definitely going to remain on this Bolts blue line as he showed his offensive abilities in the playoffs as he was amazing and I would expect that they might even go into extension talks this year because even though he is a year away from being a RFA he will get a big raise on his $4.8 Million dollar current contract and I definitely see Sergachev on the left side of the 2nd line, and for Cernak while he isn’t as good as the other two he showed his grit in the playoffs as he blocked shot after shot and he will also be a RFA in a year but is on a great contract for what he brings and he is still a top 4 D in my eyes and I would expect him to play on either the first pair with Hedman or the 2nd pair with Sergachev next year. Then you have McDonagh who is a really good 3rd pair defensemen and is stuck behind Hedman and Sergachev on the depth chart but is making $6.75 Million for the next 4 seasons and that is too rich for a 3rd pair defensemen in my opinion so he may try to be traded by the Lightning. I don’t think the Lightning want to get rid of McDonagh but he is just too expensive for them and expandable with the two other left side defensemen there as well, and even though I would predict the Lightning would try to trade him I would think that no team wants McDonagh at that cap hit so I think for at least this upcoming season he will stay with the Lightning. Then joining him on the 3rd pair would be one of Bogosian or Foote. Both are good 3rd pair defensemen as Foote is a year away from being a RFA and is trying to prove he is a regular NHL defensemen which I absolutely think he is and Bogosian who is still signed very affordably for the next few seasons and is a very good 3rd pair D-Men and is another option for the 3rd pair on the right side and I think that one of Foote or Bogosian will get to be on the 3rd pair with McDonagh while the other will be the 7th defensemen for Tampa Bay. And to top it off with Rutta becoming a Pending UFA and I personally feel that he won’t be back with Tampa next year I think that the Lightning will either trade or sign for a top 4 Defensemen who may be more geared to a 3rd pair role but has some experience as a top 4 defensemen and Tampa Bay could use that player as a top 4 D-Men with either Hedman or Sergachev but he would have to cost between $2.5-3 Million as that would be all I think the Lightning can afford but bringing in a top 4 D has to be a priority for Tampa. So to recap have Hedman man the top pair and Sergachev play on the 2nd pair with Cernak playing on one of those two pairs. Then if they don’t move him have McDonagh play on the 3rd pair with either Cal Foote or Zach Bogosian and have the other of those two be the 7th defender and then get a top 4 right side defensemen who could play with Hedman or Sergachev but is only signed for $2.5-3 Million per year and if they do all of this I suspect they will once agin be a good defensive team next year.
And lastly with the offense as the Lightning are set up pretty good for next year but they do have some important question to deal with this offseason. Now I think that they have most of their top 6 for next year as they have locked up most of their players for the next few years. Now while he missed a lot of the playoffs I do think that Points who was injured a lot this year will remain top line Center as his 8 year extension is kicking in this year and I still see him as the number 1 Center for the Lightning and I still see him playing with Nikita Kucherov on the top line as those two play really well together and Kucherov is still signed for a while so having those to back on the top line will make this team real good next year. Then I would put both Cirelli and Stamkos on the second line as Captain Stamkos is only 2 years away from free agency but is still a really productive veteran right now for the Lightning and while he is usually a Center but with the amount of Centers that they have I see him playing on the wing next year, and Cirelli who really showed how good of a top 6 forward he can be this year especially in the Playoffs I believe is ready for a bigger role and I think Centering the Stamkos line would be a good for for him. Now the other two spots are up in the air to me right now but I believe that Hagel will make up the 3rd spot on the second line as he had a breakout year this year and is still signed pretty cheaply for what he brings so I think that on a line with Cirelli and Stamkos he could put up even more points then this year and I think he is poised for a top 6 role with the possibility that Palat leaves. And speaking of Palat I think it will come down to Killorn or Palat for who fills the other top 6 spot. Killorn is signed for one more year at just over $4 Million per year and if they traded him I think the Bolts could have enough cap space to bring back Palat who is a pending UFA to play on the top line, but if they still want to keep Killorn even though he was almost a no show in the playoffs because he is a good player then I think Palat would leave via free agency and Killorn would play on the top line and while both are pretty good scenarios I would think that they wind up keeping Killorn over Palat. Then I believe that they will keep the third line intact from this year as Colton and Perry who are both entering the final years of their contract showed how valuable they are as depth pieces on this Bolts team and I think will be big prices on that 3rd line next year and the other member of that line was Nick Paul who I think will sign a new contract at around $2.5-3.5 Million per year and I think the Bolts are capable of signing him to that so if they bring him back to play with Colton and Perry that would be a huge win for Tampa. And to finish up I think that veterans Bellemare and Maroon who are both really good shutdown forward will both play on the fourth line next year and I would think that youngster Alex Barre-Boulet will get a shot to play on the fourth line after Katchouk and Raddysh were both moved and he is the Bolts best NHL ready prospect and I would also guess the Lightning sign a few depth pieces to give them a bit more depth sort of like how Perry and Maroon have done that for Tampa. So to recap I think that Kucherov and Point will play on the top line with Alex Killorn, the second line will have Cirelli, Stamkos and Hagel play on it, the Bolts will bring back the third line from this year with Paul being signed to a new deal and remaining on the 3rd line with Perry and Colton while Bellemare, Maroon and Barre-Boulet will make up the fourth line and while they don’t bring back Palat they will sign a few cheap players to contend for fourth line spots and I think that if they do all of this then they will have a legit chance to make it to 4 straight Stanley Cup Finals.
Colorado
Notable UFA’s: Andre Burakovsky, Nazem Kadri, Valeri Nichushkin, Darren Helm, Andrew Cogliano, Nico Sturm, Josh Manson, Ryan Murray, Jack Johnson, Darcy Kuemper
Notable RFA’s: Arturri Lehkonen, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Mikhail Maltsev, Shane Bowers
Draft Picks: COL 3RD, COL 5RD, COL 6RD, COL 7RD
Why did they miss the playoffs.
The Avalanche were able to win the West this season as conference Champs after being the best in the West in the regular season as well getting 119 points to win the Western Conference and drew the Predators in the first round. They were able to handle the Predators quite well with no Saros in net for Nashville as they were able to easily sweep past the Preds and go on to play the Blues where they definitely had a more difficult series but were able to get past them with a very tight 6 game series win and got to the Conference Final against the Oilers where most expected a close series until the Avalanche showed who was boss and ended up with a very surprising sweep of the Oilers and then got to the Cup Final to go head to head with Tampa Bay but there were a few underlying factors I think that helped them get to the Stanley cup Final. First would have to be the absolutely unbelievable play of young defensemen Cale Makar. Makar has showed a lot in these playoffs just how mature he is even though he is still a young defender as he put up 29 points going into game 6 of the cup final and that is one of the most points by a defensemen in a playoff year in NHL history but has also displayed his defensive abilities by showing how well he can shutdown top lines on opposing teams so given the fact he has found this amazing two way ability and is being discussed as one of the best defensemen in the league has been a major boost for the Avalanche on the trip to the Stanley Cup.
Secondly I think that their scoring via the defence was another reason as to how they had so much success in the playoffs. While Makar was a big part of the scoring this year, it wasn’t just him on the blue line as the top 4 defensemen in scoring for Colorado going into game 6 which was Makar, Toews, Manson, Byram combined for 59 points coming into game 6 while the Bolts top 4 in scoring of Hedman, Sergachev, McDonagh and Rutta combined for only 39 points. So even though the Avs defence has done a outstanding job in shutting down amazing offenses, they have also showed that they can score at will and is another reason the Avalanche are now in the Cup Final. And lastly would have to be there offense period. This team is loaded up front and have showed it time and time again in the playoffs as they absolutely decked Nashville in the first round and showed a few times against Edmonton just how elite their offense is and when comparing their offensive production to Tampa Bay’s it isn’t even close because going into game 6 of the Cup Final the Lightning had 6 players hit the double digit mark and 9 players be over 6 points and that is pretty good but Colorado has 8 players who have double digit points and 13 players who have hit more then 6 points and it is that type of offensive capabilities that has helped the Avalanche get to the last round and all three of these factors were huge in helping the Avalanche get to the Stanley Cup Final.
How can they improve in the offseason
The Avalanche as I mentioned above had a outstanding season after winning the Western Confrence with 119 points and then sweeping the Predators in the first round followed by a tight series win over the Blues in 6 games and then the Av’s went on to best the Oilers in another sweep and are now in the Cup Final against the Bolts and although they have had a great season and made it to the Stanley Cup Final they do have a lot of questions they need answered in the offseason and here is how I see them improving their team.
First with goaltending as they have a bit of a dilemma when it comes to the starting position. The Avalanche had a nice tandem of Kuemper and Francouz this year and in both the regular season and the playoffs they did a fantastic job but they probably won’t be the tandem next year as Kuemper is currently a pending UFA and might not be back in Colorado. Kuemper had a great year in Colorado as he put up a great .921 SV% in 57GP which was the most games he played in a entire season in his career and I think that after a season like this he could definitely get a 3-5 year contract at $4.5-5.5 Million per year and I think that depending on what the Avalanche want they could or could not sign him. I believe that Francouz who was extended in season on a 2 year $2 Million dollar deal is a great tandem goalie and for what he brings he that is a amazing contract but he is at best a 1A and can play half of the games so I still think that they would need another tandem goalie and I think that Kuemper could be that guy but if the Av’s don’t want to pay a goalie at around $5 Million then I think Kuemper could hit free agency and the Avalanche would go out via free agency or via trade and get a bit of a cheaper goalie but still someone who would be good in a tandem with Francouz as I think for this Avalanche team with how good Francouz is it would make absolutely sense to have a tandem in Colorado. So to recap have Francouz be a part of a tandem next season and I think they will bring back Kuemper but if he winds up being too expensive then they will bring in a goalie who isn’t as expensive but could fill Kuemper’s role as a 1A goalie and if Colorado does this I have no flint they will be good in goal next year.
Next is their defense where I do anticipate a couple of changes to their blue line. So to start I think that the top pair of Makar and Toews is here to stay for Colorado. Toews is still signed for a few years and Makar is under contract for five and given how well these two have played together I would not break them apart as Makar is a all round good player as he is good both offensively and defensively and has showcased both of his abilities in these playoffs and he is very young and is already regarded as one of the best NHL defensemen and with Toews who is also offensively gifted and helps bring the best out of Makar I feel that this duo is amazing and will remain in Colorado. Next I think that while there was lots of trade rumors surrounding Girard last year I believe that he is still a good top 4 defender and should remain on the 2nd pair because even though he is a bit on the small side and does get pushed around a bit I think he is still a good top 4 defender and he just needs a physical partner and while Manson filled that role to some degree this year after he was acquired it sounds like he doesn’t want to ho back to Colorado as he is a pending UFA so I expect the Avalanche to go out and acquire a top 4 defensemen either via free agency or trade because I think they could benefit greatly from a top 4 D-Men and with how well they played with Manson as a top 4 D I think that as long as they get a defender who isn’t too expensive probably in the $3-4 Million dollar range and can play a physical type of game on the second pair with Girard then I think they will do that. Then I would have Byram who overcame a lot of injuries this season to play and actually had a great year, especially in the playoffs were he was one of the teams highest point scorers on the backend and I would say that putting him on the third line with a veteran would help him grow even more, and I would also get rid of Erik Johnson as he is definitely a good player and loves playing for the Avalanche but is now entering the final year of his contract at $6 Million and for a 3rd pair D-Men to be making $6 Million is not good for a team needing cap space so even if they have to retain $1-2 Million on his contract for the last year or buy him out I definitely think that it is very likely that Johnson isn’t back next year. Then lastly I would let MacDermid have a good shot at being on the 3rd pair with Byram as he isn’t too expensive and could be the big body Byram needs to take that next step offensively and I could also see them sign not trade for a veteran defensemen who can compete with MacDermid for a 3rd pair spot and play with Byram. So to recap have Toews and Makar remain the top pair, then have Girard play on the 2nd pair with another top 4 defensemen they either sign or trade with Manson leaving via free agency, then trade Johnson as he is too expensive, and have Byram play on the 3rd pair with either MacDermid or another veteran who they bring in and if they do this they should be able to still play a pretty good defensive game next year.
And lastly in the offensive aspect as they have a huge amount of questions to answer right now. So to start the first and most important priority for the Avalanche is to get Mackinnon signed to a extension as he is their best player and they don’t want him walking to free agency for nothing so signing him to continue to play great hockey and man the first line is a necessity for Colorado. Then they will in my opinion bring back Nichushkin as he is a pending UFA but has had a major breakout year this season and proved he can be a middle six forward and it seems signing him is at the top of the Avalanche to do list so getting him for 3-5 years at around $4-5 Million seems very likely to happen and I would also say that he would join Mackinnon and Captain Landeskog on the top line as it would allow the Avalanche to spread their best players in different lines and help Nichushkin produce even more. Next I would keep Rantanen as a top 6 forward on the 2nd line as he is still a great player I just think taking him off of the top line gives them more levels of scoring and I think he could thrive on the 2nd line, then with Nazem Kadri most likely not coming back I would think that the 2nd line Center position is given to Alex Newhook who I think is ready for a bigger role and i think on a line with Rantanen it could bring out the best in him and I do believe he is ready for a breakout year so putting him on the 2nd line would be smart. And on the third line I would have Lehkonen play on one side as he is a pending RFA and I think will sign for between $2.5-3.5 million per year and if the Avalanche has his kind of production in the bottom six they could benefit from amazing scoring depth so I think he is a fit on the 3rd line with Compher who I know is entering the final year of his contract and even though his contract isn’t the best he is still a great middle six forward and I think that having him on the 3rd line will continue to give the Avalanche solid production. So with Burakovsky and Kadri amongst others not being back in my opinion I believe the Avalanche will sign two middle six players to fill out their top nine as I would expect one would be to play on the Left Wing of the second line where Burakovsky was and another would be the third line Center position that Newhook was occupying as the Rantanen line could use a winger and they need a Center for the third line and as long as they aren’t to expensive as I would say the winger would need to be signed for between $3-4 Million and the center will need to be signed to a $2-3 Million dollar cap hit but getting those players to replace Kadri and Burakovsky I feel is important. Then to finish I think that Pending RFA Aube-Kubel and Logan O’Connor will bother challenge for fourth line spots as I feel that these two are really important depth pieces for the Avalanche and I would say that they will probably sign a few depth pieces to challenge for a bottom six role as well as some young players like Bowers, Kaut and Ranta I think will all get a chance to make the NHL roster and help this Av’s team next year. So to recap extend Mackinnon to a multi year extension and resign pending UFA Nichushkin to play on the top line with Captain Landeskog, then have Rantanen and Newhook on the second line and then have Lehkonen and Compher play on the 3rd line and then fill out the top 9 with bringing in a middle six winger to play on line 2 and a middle six Center to play on line 3 and then have forwards Aube-Kubel and O’Connor fight for a spot on the fourth line with youngsters Ranta, Kaut and Bowers as well as maybe a few depth signings and if they can do this i think they will still be a pretty respectable offensive team next year.
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