My playoff predictions And previews for the 1RD round Series that start on Monday.
West
2P Edmonton vs Los Angeles 3P
This is the 8th all time matchup between the Oilers and Kings and the Oilers have won 5 of the 7 previous matchups including a 4-2 series win in their latest matchup in 1992.
Regular season record vs each other:
Edmonton 3-1-0 13-12+1
Los Angeles 1-2-1 12-13-1
My X-Factors for the series for each team: Mike Smith vs Adrian Kempe.
These two have to be the players who could make it brake the series for each team. Smith has been playing amazing hockey as of late having not lost a start since April began and when he plays well it allows the offense to get going but when he doesn’t play well it puts pressure on the offense so if he can play well then Edmonton could move on. As for LA Adrian Kempe had a coming out party this season recording his first 30 goals and 50 point season in the NHL and his scoring not only helped LA get goals but also being the most productive player allowed for the Danault line to get better looks and score, so if he continues playing like he did in the regular season I have no doubt that LA will have a shot to win this series.
Who has advantage in my opinion:
Offensively: Edmonton. As good as the Kings offense has been this year with Arvidsson, Danault and Kempe, when you have Draisaitl and McDavid leading your offense then it’s really hard to bet against it.
Defensively: Edmonton. The Oilers and Kings have pretty similar D-Corps but the fact of how much Bouchard improved this year and that Doughty is out for the season makes me think Edmonton has the edge.
Goaltending Los Angeles. The Kings duo of Peterson and Quick who are 2 1A goalies right now is a lot better then the Smith-Koskinen tandem that cost the Oilers last playoffs.
Matchup I am most intrigued by: LA offense vs Oilers goaltending. LA doesn’t have as potent a offense as the Oilers but they do have quite a decent top 6 that can score, especially timely goals, and against a Oilers net that could make or brake their postseason depending on how well Smith does this year really does intrigue me.
My Prediction is LA in 6 games.
Reason: this was a really tough decision to make as these two are both really good teams but there are a few factors I had to picking LA. First a feel that their is going to be at least two upsets this year and given how underrated their team is and how much of a resilient core they have I feel a LA upset is not only possibly, but a great possibility. 2nd is that while they don’t have the amazing superstar players like Edmonton and maybe not even the best offense in this series I feel that they have more depth scoring possibilities then Edmonton and their offense is a whole bunch younger then Edmonton and with their perfect blend of youth and veterans I feel they could score more goals then one would think. And finally the biggest thing for me is the goalies as LA has two players in Quick and Peterson who could be playoff starters, while the Oilers are almost guaranteed to start Smith in the playoffs and while he can carry the weight in the playoffs and has played really good this year I sort of feel with the way these teams are structured that it is could very possibly come down to whose goalie is better and due to these reasons I have the Kings coming away with a upset win over the Oilers in 6 games.
My Projected lineup.
Edmonton
E.Kane-C.McDavid-J.Puljujarvi
Z.Hyman-L.Draisaitl-K.Yamamoto
W.Foegele-R.N Hopkins-Z.Kassian
D.Brassard-R.McLeod-D.Shore
D.Nurse-C.Ceci
D.Keith-E.Bouchard
B.Kulak-T.Barrie
M.Smith
Los Angeles
A.Iafallo-A.Kopitar-A.Kempe
T.Moore-P.Danault-V.Arvidsson
A.Athanasiou-Q.Byfield-D.Brown
G.Vilardi-B.Lizotte-A.Kaliyev
M.Anderson-M.Roy
A.Edler-S.Durzi
T.Bjornfot-T.Stecher
C.Peterson
Central
2C Minnesota vs St.Louis 3C
This is the 3rd all time meeting between the Blues and the Wild and each team won 1 of the previous 2 series, and St.Louis won the most recent matchup between the two teams 4-1 back in 2017.
Regular season record vs each other:
St.Louis 3-0-0 16-12+4
Minnesota 0-1-2 12-16-4
My X-Factors for each team for the series: Jordan Kyrou vs Kevin Fiala
These two players have had phenomenal season and were more productive then I could ever predict but in terms of X-Factors and who could help their respective teams to victory then theses two would have to be it. For Fiala it has been a amazing second half of the season as he started the year slow with only 15 points in 25 games but in early December and once he was paired with Boldy his numbers took off as he would put up a whopping 70 points in his final 57 games and has made Minnesota that much more lethal. Now if Fiala continues to play well and produce not only will he be helping Minnesota score but it will allow the other lines to get better looks (especially Kaprizov’s line) and Minnesota could have a better shot at winning, but if he dries up in the playoffs then it is very possible that Kaprizov’s lone gets shutdown and all of a sudden they can’t score, so if Minnesota is going to have a chance they will need Fiala to produce. And for Kyrou the rookie has impressed this year as he has 75 points in 74 games as he was also over a point per game and while he did play in the top 6, a majority of his points came in the bottom 6 and that’s where I see him staring in the playoffs. Now if he can produce the way he did in the regular season on the 3rd line with a ton of favourable matchups then I think the Blues have a serious shot at winning, but if he gets shutdown along with their top 2 lines and the have a hard time producing offensively then I can’t see them winning the series so if St.Louis wants a shot to move on then their 3rd line (especially Kyrou) has to be producing night in night out.
Who has advantage in my opinion:
Offensively: St.Louis. While both have superb offense i seriously think that St.Louis is better. While I believe the top 6 for each team is actually real close I am looking at the entire lineup and while Minnesota’s bottom 6 is okay when you have Schenn-Barbashev-Kyrou as your 3rd line that on many teams could be a 2nd line just tells you how deep the offense is for this team.
Defensively: Minnesota. This position as a whole is a lot tighter then the forward group but I still think Minnesota is the better team at the position because their top 4 is better then St.Louis top 4 after the Middleton addition and as depth defensemen go Minnesota has four veterans who can play on the 3rd pair while St.Louis only has also has 4 but two are inexperienced and with the amount of possibilities I think Minnesota has the better all round defence.
Goaltending Minnesota. After the Wild acquired Fleury at the deadline they made the goaltending position a lethal weapon for this year as having 2 1A goalies in Fleury and Talbot are slightly better then St.Louis who has Husso playing at a starters pace while Binnington hasn’t played well this year so with those two brilliant goalies I feel that the Wild have the slight upper hand in net.
Matchup I am most intrigued by: which bottom 6 can score more. Both teams have top 6 forwards that can score and top end defensemen and goalies but i would love to see which bottom 6 can score because the bottom 6 that scores more will in my opinion be the team that wins the series so it is the matchup that I am not only most intrigued by but also the matchup that I think could decide this series.
My Prediction is MIN in 7 games.
Reason: theses two teams are very evenly matched and I can’t wait to see this series but there were a couple of reasons why I decided to go with Minnesota instead of St.Louis. First off the Wild have the better defence and goaltending then St.Louis so shutting down a potent forward group should be easier for Minnesota with Fleury then the blues would with their D-Corp and their goalies. Secondly I think that whil the blues do have the better forward group I believe that the Wild will get more chances then the Blues especially with their top 6 because while the Blues have the deeper forward group I think Minnesota has the better top 6 with Fiala and Kaprizov so I think that guys like Kaprizov and Fiala will get more scoring opportunities then guys like Thomas and Tarasenko on St.Louis so this is another reason. And finally I don’t think that this is a given for Minnesota and while I think they have a slight edge in some places for this series I by no means think they will run away with it and given how good St.Louis is I am predicting that this goes the distance with game seven possibly going to OT. That’s how close I think this series is and I also think Minnesota wins because they have the crucial factor of home ice and while this is going to be a tight series I think Minnesota will slip by and get the series win.
Minnesota
K.Kaprizov-M.Hartman-M.Zuccarello
K.Fiala-F.Gaudreau-M.Boldy
J.Greenway-J.Eriksson Ek-M.Foligno
N.Deslauriers-T.Jost-B.Duhaime
J.Middleton-J.Spurgeon
J.Brodin-M.Dumba
J.Merrill-A.Goligoski
M.A Fleury
St.Louis
B.Saad-R.O’Reilly-D.Perron
P.Buchnevich-R.Thomas-V.Tarasenko
I.Barbashev-B.Schenn-J.Kyrou
A.Toropchenko-T.Bozak-L.Brown
N.Leddy-C.Parayko
T.Krug-J.Faulk
M.Scandella-R.Bortuzzo
J.Binnington
East
2A Toronto vs Tampa Bay 3A
This will be the first ever playoff netting between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning since Tampa Bay was created in 1992.
Regular season record vs each other:
Tampa Bay 2-1-1 16-12+4
Toronto 2-2-0 12-16-4
My X-Factors for each team for the series: William Nylander vs Brandon Hagel: these two are not so secret weapons for their respective teams that I think will be key to getting their team a victory in the 1st round. William Nylander is the lowest paid player of the big 4 forwards that make a lot of Toronto’s cap hit but just because he’s making the least money doesn’t mean he is the least important because even though he shuffled between the 2nd and 3rd lines this season he still managed to put up 34 goals and 80 in 81 games this year. No matter whether he plays on line 2 or 3 he will need to produce due to the fact that Marner and Matthews have been known to produce less in the playoffs and that having him produce on the 3rd line as a depth scorer would give more options to the Maple Leafs, while if he can’t produce and more attention is put on Matthews and Marner it becomes real hard for Toronto too score so Nylander being productive is a must for Toronto. As for Tampa Bay they moved heaven and earth before the deadline to piece together a new energy line and while Paul wasn’t very costly Hagel cost 4 pieces including 2 1RD picks and had 4 goals and 7 points in 22 games with Tampa before the season ended. Now if the Lightning want to make it past the 1RD then they will need a great 3rd line again just like the last 2 years and Hagel will be a big part of that because of Toronto can relatively well shutdown Tampa’s top 6 then the bottom 6 with Hagel at the fore front will need to produce at a high levels of the Bolts want to get to round two but if Hagel can’t have a big role in his first playoffs then I see Tampa having a difficult time making it out of round 1.
Who has advantage in my opinion:
Offensively: Toronto. Now these two actually have very similar forward groups this year and both have superstars that can change the tide of a series but in my opinion while the Lightning were able to score a lot before the end of the season, with a lack of a identity line like last year I think that they have a worse offense especially because I think that Marner and Matthews are better then Stamkos and Kucherov, but this is also if Toronto can have Kase and Bunting back for a majority of the series.
Defensively: Toronto. This was probably one of the hardest places to pick because these two teams are so damn close Defensively, but in terms of who was the better defence I would have to say Toronto because after acquiring experienced D Giordano and with the improvement of Liljegren I think the D-Corp in Toronto is slimly better then Tampa’s.
Goaltending: Tampa Bay. Their is really only one word to describe why Tampa is better in net, Vasilevskiy. As good as Jack Campbell is and has been recently the playoff Vasilevskiy is someone that no team wants to face and I think he could be a big factor in this series but he is the reason Tampa is better in net.
Matchup that I am most intrigued by: Matthews and Marner vs Hedman and the shutdown line. The identity line not only helped the Bolts score last year but also shutdown opposing teams top lines and were lethal that way but the matchup I can’t wait to see this season has to be whoever they put on the 3rd line probably with Hagel and Paul and Hedman with his partner standing up to the tall task of defending the Marner and Matthews line. I know that Bunting isn’t starting that series but I think Marner and Matthews will be a handful and if they can get past the shutdown line and score then it will be the Leafs series but if the Bolts shutdown Matthews and Marner then I feel they win so whoever wins this matchup will get the series.
My prediction is Toronto in 7 games.
Reasons: this is a series that I feel is super close just like the Blues-Wild series and while this May surprise a few that I picked Toronto I will give my reasoning for it. First I think that in a very key factor, Matthews and Marner will out perform Stamkos and Kucherov. Now this may come as a surprise given how well Stamkos and Kucherov have played in the playoffs but this may be a bold prediction but I think that if the duo in Toronto outperformed the duo in Tampa then I see the Leafs having a serious shot at taking out Toronto and it also helps that the identity line in Tampa isn’t their anymore. Secondly I think that the defence in Toronto will outplay the Tampa D-Corp. the Maple Leafs got Giordano at the deadline while Tampa didn’t get any D-Men at the deadline this year and I think it could hurt them. With the way the Maple Leafs have their D-Pairs structured and the fact that they could become even more deadly if Sandin can get healthy and play later in the playoffs and with that strong D-Corp they are going to shutdown the Bolts offence. And lastly the reason the Maple Leafs Will Win is because the Maple Leafs do have home ice and while some people think that home ice isn’t big, I do and with the Maple Leafs and their home crowd behind them they will ride the wave and in a very close, competitive and feisty series these are the reasons that I figure the Maple Leafs will edge out the Bolts in 7 games.
My Projected lineup
Tampa Bay
O.Palat-S.Stamkos-N.Kucherov
A.Killorn-B.Point-R.Colton
N.Paul-A.Cirelli-B.Hagel
P.Maroon-P.E Bellemare-C.Perry
V.Hedman-J.Rutta
R.McDonagh-E.Cernak
M.Sergachev-Z.Bogosian
A.Vasilevsky
Toronto
I.Mikheyev-A.Matthews-M.Marner
A.Kerfoot-J.Tavares-O.Kase
W.Nylander-D.Kampf-P.Engvall
C.Blackwell-J.Spezza-W.Simmonds
M.Reilly- I.Lyubushkin
J.Muzzin-T.J Brodie
M.Giordano-T.Liljegren
J.Campbell
Metro
1M Carolina vs Boston 1WC
This is the 7th all time meeting and 3rd time in the last four seasons that the Hurricanes and and Bruins will play in the playoffs, and the Bruins have won 5 of the 6 previous matches they played including the two most recent series in 2019 and 20.
Regular season record vs each other:
Boston 0-3-0 16-1+15
Carolina 3-0-0 1-16-15
My X-Factor for each team for the series: Jesperi Kotkaniemi vs Jake DeBrusk: both of these guys are undervalued forwards who in my opinion are going to have to play good in order for their teams to win the series. For DeBrusk in Boston the Bruins had considered trading him before the deadline but didn’t because after being placed on the top line of Boston he really rejuvenated his career and was close to a career high this year. Now with him playing on the top line it opens up Pastrnak to play on the 2nd line and balances their 4 lines and gives them a chance to win, but if DeBrusk dries up in the playoffs and they go back to being top 6 heavy then I don’t think they can win the series. As for Carolina Kotkaniemi was brought in via offer sheet and has played well but has mostly been a bottom 6 forward and while he didn’t produce much only getting 12 goals and 29 points he can be a amazing bottom 6 forward for the Canes. Now if the Hurricanes have their top 6 forward lines shutdown by Boston then their bottom 6 will become hugely important and if Kotkaniemi can produce at a respective level then Carolina should win the series but if he winds up not producing much then I see Carolina having a difficult time winning the series.
Who has advantage in my opinion:
Offensively: Carolina. While the Bruins have a very potent offense especially after moving DeBrusk to the top line and putting Smith and Coyle on the third, when you are good enough to have Necas and Kotkaniemi in you bottom 6 it means you are deep and in my opinion will have the slightly better offense.
Defensively: Boston. While they both have really good defensemen especially D-Men who can score in their top 4, it is the bottom pairing and depth where I see the deference and the Bruins have at least 4 players who can play on the 3rd pair and their depth defensemen in Boston are better then the guys in Carolina in my opinion so I think Boston is better defensively.
Goaltending Carolina. Under one condition and that is that Andersen is healthy come playoff time. The Canes are waiting to see if Andersen who is injured right now winds playing in game 1 or in the series and if he does then the Canes tandem who won the Jennings trophy is definitely better then Boston, but if Andersen remains injured I see the young and inexperienced tandem in Boston being the better tandem.
Matchup I am most intrigued by: Carolina’s top 4 vs Boston’s top 6. Carolina has been known for good soild defensemen even after the departure of Hamilton, the addition of DeAngelo has helped and the top 4 can not only defend and help their goalies but can also put up a lot of points and definitely contribute to the offense, however I would like to see how they play against the top 6 of Boston as the Bruins top 6 with Marchand and Pastrnak has shown that they can produce dangerously offensively over the past few years and whether Carolina can shut down Boston or Boston exposes Carolina could very well determine who wins the series.
My Prediction is CAR in 6.Reasons: these two teams are a lot closer then people think but their are a couple underlying factors that I used to predict Carolina winning. One is that even if Andersen doesn’t start game one Carolina still has a experienced goalie in Antti Raanta who hasn’t played many playoff games but does have a few, while for Boston Ullmark has never played in the playoffs before and Swayman played a few minutes last year so with the inexperienced goalies on Boston their is trouble for possible mistakes. Secondly is that as good of a forward group Boston has Carolina’s is better in my opinion, because with Kotkaniemi and Necas on the 4th line and the top 9 being so potent the Canes definitely have a slightly more productive offense and the defence can produce a lot more offensively then Boston’s so while this may come as a surprise I think Carolina will outscore Boston. And lastly as I mentioned these two teams have played each other a lot over the past few playoffs and I think that the Canes have learned from experience on how to beat Boston and after improving and learning from mistakes, it is why I think Carolina will win this series in 6.
My Projected lineup.
Carolina
A.Svechnikov-S.Aho-S.Jarvis
M.Domi-V.Trocheck-T.Teravainen
N.Niederriter-J.Staal-J.Fast
J.Martinook-J.Kotkaniemi-M.Necas
J.Slavin-T.DeAngelo
B.Skjei-B.Pesce
I.Cole-E.Bear
A.Raanta
Boston
B.Marchand-P.Bergeron-J.Debrusk
T.Hall-E.Haula-D.Pastrnak
T.Frederic-C.Coyle-C.Smith
N.Foligno-T.Nosek-C.Lazar
H.Lindholm-C.McAvoy
M.Grzelyck-B.Carlo
D.Forbort-J.Brown
L.Ullmark
Comments
Post a Comment