My playoff predictions for the 3RD round
Recap Second round
My Predictions
Tampa Bay in 7
Carolina in 6
Colorado in 6
Calgary in 7
What actually happened
Tampa Bay in 4
New York R in 7
Colorado in 6
Edmonton in 5
I went 2 for 4 in predicting teams
I went 1 for 4 in predicting series length
West
1C Colorado vs Edmonton 2P
This is the 3RD all time matchup between Colorado and Edmonton and both teams have won 1 matchup previously as Colorado won their first meeting in 1997 while Edmonton won the next meeting in 1998 when they beat the Avalanche in 7 games.
Regular season record vs each other:
Colorado 2-1-0 8-9-1
Edmonton 1-0-2 9-8+1
My X-Factors for each team for the series: Connor McDavid vs Nathan Mackinnon. My X-Factors for each team is the two top guns that everyone wants to see go head to head and that is Mackinnon vs McDavid. Mackinnon has been a absolute monster in the postseason as he has produced 8 goals and 13 points in the playoffs and has a point in all but two of the Avalanche games and while this team has great depth, if the Avalanche are going to have a chance to win this series and get to the Stanley Cup Final then the big boys will have to contribute and that will begin with Mackinnon who has too play outstanding for Colorado to move on. As for the Oilers it is Connor McDavid who has been the most outstanding player in the playoffs as he willed the Oilers past the Kings and came up clutch in the Flame series and has 26 points in only 12 games as that is more then many players have in the full Stanley Cup Playoffs in previous years and I think that if McDavid can keep up his over 2 point per game pace then I would think the Oilers would be the favourite to win the series.
Who has the advantage in my opinion:
Offensively: Edmonton. Both teams are really good in the offensive aspect of the game but I would give the Oilers a slight edge at the forward position because not only do I feel that the Oilers have the better top end talent with McDavid and Draisaitl leading the way but when it comes to depth I feel that Edmonton has more capable piece then the Avalanche do.
Defensively: Colorado. Both teams have elite level defensemen that can produce almost at will but there is one player I think separates these two teams and that is Cale Makar. Makar is on a whole other level then any of the Oilers defensemen and while I think that the other five defensemen are pretty close in play to Edmonton’s six defensemen there is no doubt in my eyes Makar gives the Avalanche defence a whole different monster then the Oilers.
Goaltending: Colorado. This is just because I think that even though Smith has done a amazing job in net I really do think that Kuemper can make the bigger save at key times then Smith, however I don’t suspect goaltending to be a big factor and this game to take shape after the Flames game in which it was offense, offense, offense.
Matchup I am most intrigued by: McDavid vs Mackinnon. Both of these players have proven in their careers that they are top line Centers in the NHL and have been known to make unreal plays and produce not only consistently but way above at unreal paces and I would really like to see if McDavid who has had multipoint games in all but two playoff games can outscore Mackinnon who has a point in all but two playoff games or vice versa because I honestly think that whoever gets more points will lead their team to victory.
My Prediction is EDM in 6 games.Reasons: these are two really good offensively gifted teams and I do think this will be a tight series but there are a few reasons I am leaning towards Edmonton. One has to be McDavid and Draisaitl. Both of these two players have been on fire as they are both sitting high and dry above the rest of the league in playoff points as both have 26 which is 7 clear of third place and I have no doubt that even though Mackinnon is a good player and is also over a point per game with Colorado, I just feel that with McDavid’s will to win even if he caries the team and Draisaitl after the monster series he has against Calgary that these two are going to be Avalanche killers. Secondly is the ability to shutdown the opponents top players and get the depth players having to score goals. As we saw in both the Kings and Flames series the Oilers had great play from Mike Smith and were able to shutdown the top offensive players on the opposing team like Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Kopitar and Kempe and that allowed guys like McDavid and Draisaitl to get big important goals and I think they can shutdown the top line of Colorado’s as well. And finally I think that as we saw in the Calgary series it didn’t have to always be the McDavid show as guys like Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Human, Nugent-Hopkins, Bouchard, and Nurse get in on the scoring too and especially at key times so given that I am giving Edmonton the better forward group I also think that their depth forwards will outscore the Avalanche depth forwards and these are reasons I believe the Oilers will make it to the Stanley Cup Final.
East
2M New York R vs Tampa Bay 3A
This is the Second ever playoff matchup between the Rangers and Lightning and the only other time the two teams played was in the 2015 Stanley Cup Confrence Final where the Lightning beat the Rangers in 7 games to go on to the Stanley Cup Final.
Regular season record vs each other:
New York R 3-0-0 10-4+6
Tampa Bay 0-2-1 4-10-6
My X-Factors for each team for the series: Chris Kreider vs Nikita Kucherov. Both of these Players have been essential to their teams wins in the first two rounds and will have to keep producing for their teams to have a shot. For Kucherov he has been great in these playoffs again as he had put up 15 points in 11 playoff games this season and while he only has scored 4 goals in the playoffs it is his ability to put in goals that has Tampa such a lethal team and I feel that if he can lead the Bolts charge and score some important and crucial goals for Tampa then we could be looking at a team who will make it top three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals. And for Kreider he has not put up much in the way of points in the playoffs as he only has 11 but it has been his ability to produce when they need him most that has been Kreider’s best factor as in the Rangers 5 games facing elimination he has scored five of his eight goals and has six points in those 5 games so if he can produce more consistently then he has in the playoffs and continue to come up clutch at key times then I have no doubt the Rangers will have a shot to win this series.
Who has the advantage in my opinion:
Offensively: New York R. Both teams have pretty good forward groups and it is hard to give a advantage but I think that while the teams both have good players I think that the Rangers have the deeper squad and would be able to overcome a injury and the fact that Point could miss the first few games and Hagel is banged up leads me to give the Rangers the advantage in the forward group.
Defensively: Tampa Bay. Both teams have really good D-Corp but if I had to give a team a advantage it would have to be Tampa as the Lightning have the more experienced bunch on the backend and given their amazing defensemen who can come in and score especially with the way Hedman is playing right now I believe that (slightly) the Bolts have the better D-Corp.
Goaltending: Tampa Bay. These are maybe the best two goalies on the planet right now who have not let adversity stop them as Vasilevskiy had a shaky start to round 1 and Shesterkin was pulled in the 1st round twice (Games 3 and 4), but based on experience and the insane records in games where Tampa can close out a series and he doesn’t let anything get through him, I would give the smallest edge to Vasilevskiy.
Matchup I am most intrigued by: Goalie battle. While this could turn out to be a goal scoring match, I think that the best matchup here is between the two out standing goalies. Now both had shaky starts as games 1-5 probably Vasilevskiy looked shaky and seemed to be at the mercy of Matthews and Toronto’s offense but since then in the last 6 games has a .965 SV% and only gave up 7 goals in that span and has this insane record for letting no goals through in recent years when Tampa Bay has had a chance to clinch and he being the more experienced I think he is the better goalie but not by much. As for Shesterkin he started out shaky including being pulled in game 3 and game 4 in the first round but since being pulled has won 7 of 10 starts and has a astonishing .938 SV % and absolutely shutdown the Canes offence and while I know he doesn’t have the experience it would not surprise me at all if he actually out dueled Vasilevskiy in this series and I am positive the goalie who makes the crucial saves in this series will be on the team headed to the Stanley Cup.
My Prediction is NYR in 7 games.Reason:these two teams are pretty close together in terms of playing level but I do have a few reasons to believe that the Rangers will win this series. First is the goalie battle and I think both goalies showed very well how good they can be and how they can shutdown opponents potent offense and although I did give the edge in goaltending to Tampa with Vasilevskiy I do expect Shesterkin to give him a run for his money and would not be surprised if he out played him and also given the outstanding numbers Shesterkin had in the regular season against Tampa I think he could out duel Vasilevskiy. Number two is the Point injury as Point is a huge part of the Bolts team and while I know he didn’t play at all against the Panthers I think they will need him a lot more in this series then in the other series given that New York can shut down good offenses and that the Bolts will need all the help they can get, is he misses 3-4 games then maybe New York takes advantage. And finally I am making a bold prediction that the Rangers top players will outplay the Lightning top players because even though the Lightning top 6 has been consistent and has been able to help their team win, the Rangers top 6 has come through clutch especially in the 5 games they played facing elimination and I think that the big boys on New York will find ways to score more then the Bolts ans these are reasons why I think the Rangers will go to the Cup Final.
And there is my Stanley Cup Prediction as I see the McDavid led Oilers looking to being the cup back to Canada taking on the young upstart Rangers who would be in their first cup final appearance since losing to LA in 2014.
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