Here on the end to end hockey blog I am going to do a mock Seattle expansion draft as based on intuition and instinct with the best roster I can create from the current rosters. The real protection list for all thirty teams (Vegas is excluded from the expansion draft) will be on Saturday July 17th and the Expansion draft on Wednesday July 21st. Each team will have a chance to protect players and there are two different formats. Most teams will use the 7 Forwards-3 Defensemen-1 Goalie protection list but for teams who have a really good top 4 Defence they will use the 8 Skater-1 Goalie protection list. Any players who are injured are not eligible to be selected or protected and any player with a No Movement Clause (NMC) will have to be protected unless the player will have to waive. Players who have played two years or under in the AHL and/or NHL are exempt from the expansion draft. And finally the Kraken must draft 20 players under contract for the 2021-22 season and must draft 14 Forwards-9 Defensemen-3 Goalies. I have broken it down into four posts one for each division and on July 1st I will review the entire thing.
Ottawa Senators
Protection list 7-3-1
Forwards 7
Brady Tkachuk
Drake Batherson
Connor Brown
Evgeni Dadonov
Colin White
Nick Paul
Logan Brown
Defensemen 3
Thomas Chabot
Nikita Zaitsev
Victor Mete
Goalie 1
Filip Gustavsson
Key Exposures
Forwards
Austin Watson
Chris Tierney
Ryan Dzingel (UFA)
Defensemen
Josh Brown
Goalie
Matt Murray
Joey Daccord
Anton Forsberg
Ottawa is really set straight for their protection list but there are a couple changes that could happen. I don’t foresee any changes on the Defense from what I projected but on offense and in the net they could be some other things. On Offense i think the first six are all pretty safe to be protected but the one I think the Sens would consider would be Logan Brown. Logan Brown is a good young forward and that is why I protected him but Tierney or Watson could also protected but especially Dzingel if he resigns. And in the Net they have a decision to make with good goalies Gustavsson, Murray, and Daccord all worthy of being protected. To protect the two good goalies they will leave exposed they in my opinion will make a trade. I think they will trade a 2022 4RD pick to stay away from the Goalies and select Austin Watson who will have two years remaining on his contract before being a UFA at $1.5 Million. Watson can be a bottom six forward that can bring a physical presence to the Kraken
Selection
RW,LW Austin Watson
Trade attached
Senators send 2022 4RD to the Kraken for expansion considerations.
Vancouver Canucks
Protection list 7-3-1
Forwards 7
Elias Pettersson
Bo Horvat
Brock Boeser
J.T Miller
Tanner Pearson
Jake Virtanen
Kole Lind
Defensemen 3
Brogan Rafferty (UFA)
Nate Schmidt
Olli Juolevi
Goalie 1
Thatcher Demko
Key Exposures
Forwards
Tyler Motte
Zach Macewen
Matthew Highmore
Jayce Hawryluk
Defensemen
Jaylen Chatfield (UFA)
Alex Edler (UFA)
Travis Hamonic (UFA)
Tyler Myers
Goalie
Brayden Holtby
The Canucks have a good young team and it is easier than most teams to pick their protection list. Everyone on the Forward group except for Virtanen and Lind are a lock to be protected as Motte, Macewen, or Highmore could also be protected but with more value via trade for Virtanen and Lind having a good upside I have Vancouver protecting those two forwards. On the Defense I would probably not change that much except if they resign Alex Edler, because if they resign him they would have to get rid of probably Olli Juolevi and leave him exposed so with Edler not signed I have Schmidt, Juolevi, and Rafferty protected. Rafferty who is a UFA but I think they will either work out a deal with Rafferty or just protect him to try to see if Seattle will take Myers contract, while Demko is the easy option in goal. I don’t think Seattle will sign any UFA’s, and there are only depth forwards available so getting veteran Holtby will be good. He will have a year left on his contract at $4.3 Million expiring a UFA and coming off having a .889 SV% and a 3.67 GAA in 21 games played.
Selection
G Brayden Holtby
Calgary Flames
Protection list 7-3-1
Forwards 7
Johnny Gaudreau
Matthew Tkachuk
Elias Lindholm
Sean Monahan
Andrew Mangiapane
Dillion Dube
Mikael Backlund
Defensemen 3
Rasmus Andersson
Noah Hanafin
Chris Tanev
Goalie 1
Jacob Markstrom (NMC)
Key Exposures
Forwards
Derek Ryan (UFA)
Milan Lucic (NMC-Waived)
Glenn Gawdin
Dominik Simon
Defensemen
Mark Giordano
Oliver Kylington
Goalie
Louie Domingue (UFA)
Calgary Is pretty much set and there really is not much to discuss. With NMC players having to be protected having Lucic accept to waive his No Movement Clause to be exposed in the expansion draft has allowed Calgary to make what should be a easy decision on there best seven forwards being protected. Hanafin and Andersson are locks on the blue line while Tanev and Giordano are the best to fill the final spot. Giordano is the Flames Captain and can still play at a high level but with how well Tanev paired with Hanafin and the fact that Calgary signed him to a long term contract that is why I have them protecting Tanev, and with how well Markstrom played and his NMC he is Calgary’s goalie that is protected. Youngsters Kylington and Gawdin and pending UFA and Washington born Derek Ryan are all appealing to possibly be selected but I am going to pick leadership in Mark Giordano. Giordano will have one year before becoming a UFA and will carry a $6.75 Million Contract after he had 9 Goals and 26 points in 56 games played and should be used as a leader in the top 4 for the Kraken.
Selection
LD Mark Giordano
Edmonton Oilers
Protection list 7-3-1
Forwards 7
Connor McDavid
Leon Draisaitl
Jesse Puljujarvi
Kailer Yamamoto
Dominik Kahun
Zach Kassian
Devin Shore
Defensemen 3
Darnell Nurse
Ethan Bear
Caleb Jones
Goalie 1
Alex Stalock
Key Exposures
Forwards
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (UFA)
Josh Archibald
Tyler Benson
Jujhar Khaira
Kyle Turris
Defensemen
Oscar Kelfbom
Adam Larsson (UFA)
Tyson Barrie (UFA)
William Lagesson
Goalie
Mikko Koskinen
Mike Smith (UFA)
Edmonton has a lot of uncertainty in their protection list at the moment. McDavid, Draisaitl, Yamamoto, and Puljujarvi are all locks and I think Kahun should also be protected but their are probably 4 or 5 forwards to be placed into the final two spots. Some have said the Oilers will move Kassian but even with his cap hit I have them protecting him and then it will come down to Archibald, Shore, and Benson as it sounds like Hopkins will test Free Agency. After signing Shore to a extension with the Oilers recently I have the seventh and final spot going to Shore. On Defense Nurse and Bear will be protected for sure but that third spot is up in the air. Kelfbom’s health is the biggest question mark and because of that I say they will leave him exposed but due to health concerns the Kraken do not take him. Then I for right now have them protecting Caleb Jones but if they end up signing Adam Larsson before the Draft then they would use the third slot on him and leave Jones unprotected, and if Mike Smith resigns he will be protected but because I don’t have them resigning him I put Stalock as the protection. I think the Kraken will take a long look at the pending UFA’s but it will come down to one of the young forwards as I think they will take Tyler Benson. Benson is a RFA and will need a new contract after having 10 goals and 36 points in 36 AHL games this year and he would start in the minors but work his way to being a middle six forward in time.
Selection
LW Tyler Benson
Toronto Maple Leafs
Protection list 4-4-1
Forwards 4
Auston Matthews
Mitch Marner
John Tavares (NMC)
William Nylander
Defensemen 4
Morgan Reilly
T.J Brodie
Jake Muzzin
Justin Holl
Goalie 1
Jack Campbell
Key Exposures
Forwards
Alex Kerfoot
Zach Hyman (UFA)
Nick Foligno (UFA)
Pierre Engvall
Defensemen
Zach Bogosian (UFA)
Travis Dermott
Goalies
Freddie Anderson (UFA)
David Rittich (UFA)
Toronto goes the unconventional 4-4-1 protection list for now. At the moment with Hyman unsigned it would make sense to protect based on who is more valuable Holl on defense or forward Kerfoot and I think Holl is the better player. On forward with just protecting Tavares, Matthews, Marner, and Nylander there isn’t any other guys who would be protected but if they resign Zach Hyman I think that they would automatically go to the 7-3-1 protection list. On the Back End if they end up going with the 4-4-1 line they just protect their best four defensemen which is Holl, Brodie, Reilly, And Muzzin and I think they would consider protecting Dermott but I am pretty sure he will be exposed and in net after the season Jack Campbell had he gets protected. There are a lot of UFA’s and I don’t think the Kraken will sign any Free Agents so it comes between Kerfoot and Dermott and I think Dermott will be selected by the Kraken. He can be a future top 4 defensemen and is a RFA and will need a new contract after having 2 Goals and 6 Points in 51 games played.
Selection
LD Travis Dermott
Winnipeg Jets
Protection List 7-3-1
Forwards 7
Blake Wheeler (NMC)
Marc Scheifle
Kyle Connor
Pierre Luc Dubois
Nikolai Ehlers
Adam Lowry
Andrew Copp
Defensemen 3
Josh Morrissey
Neal Pionk
Dylan Demelo
Goalie 1
Connor Hellebuyck
Key Exposures
Forwards
Mason Appleton
Jansen Harkins
Paul Stastny (UFA)
Matthieu Perreault (UFA)
Defensemen
Logan Stanley
Nathan Beaulieu
Sami Niku
Goalies
Laurent Brossoit (UFA)
Eric Comrie (UFA)
The Jets will have some things to figure out before the actually expansion draft. There are multiple locks for the protection list as Wheeler, Scheifle, Dubois, Connor, and Ehlers as well as Morrissey, Pionk, and Hellebuyck are all locks to be protected but the last two forwards and last Defensemen are a bit of a puzzle. In my opinion no UFA’s will affect their protection list but one of Lowry, Copp, and Appleton will make the final two spots from the forwards as Demelo and Stanley are in contention for the last defensive spot. I think Lowry who is a great third line center and earned his contract extension and Copp who can be placed in the top six if their are injury’s will be protected while Mason Appleton will be exposed. On the Defense Stanley has grown for the Jets but in the series against Montreal they missed Demelo so Demelo is my pick to be protected on the defense. The Krakens selection will come down to Appleton or Stanley but I will select Appleton. Appleton was really good on the third line for Winnipeg and I think can can play in the top six for the Kraken. Appleton has one year left on his contract with $900 thousand dollars and will be a RFA at the end of his contract and had 12 Goals and 25 Points in 56 games this year.
Selection
RW,C Mason Appleton
Montreal
Protection list 7-3-1
Forwards 7
Brendan Gallagher (NMC)
Tyler Toffoli
Jesper Kotkaniemi
Josh Anderson
Jonathan Drouin
Autturi Lehkonen
Jake Evans
Defensemen 3
Shea Weber
Jeff Petry (NMC)
Ben Chiarot
Goalie 1
Carey Price (NMC)
Key exposures
Forwards
Joel Armia (UFA)
Philip Danault (UFA)
Tomas Tatar (UFA)
Paul Byron
Defensemen
Joel Edmundson
Brett Kulak
Cale Fleury
Goalie
Jake Allen
The Canadiens did have a couple of things that they need to straighten out. Danault, Tatar and Armia are all UFA’s who could be resigned and at the moment I don’t think they will resign them right now but if one of those guys ends up signing Jake Evans would most likely be exposed but I don’t think they can sign two because of who they would have to expose. On Defense Weber and Petry are locks to be protected while Edmundson and Chiarot are in contention for the last defensive spot but I would give the upper hand to Chiarot with how he plays and fits in with Montreal’s play. For selection it is probably between one of the three UFA forwards, Edmundson, and goalie Allen and they in my opinion will select Allen. Allen used to be a starter but was a effective backup with the Canadiens and had a 2.68 GAA and a .907 Save Percentage in 29 games played and will be entering the first year of a two year contract extension worth $2.875 Million and even though the Canadiens could give up a big player they will not make a trade.
Selection
G Jake Allen
North Expansion picks
G Brayden Holtby Vancouver
G Jake Allen Montreal
LD Travis Dermott Toronto
LD Mark Giordano Calgary
LW Tyler Benson Edmonton
RW,C Mason Appleton Winnipeg
RW,LW Auston Watson Ottawa
North trade
Ottawa’s 2022 4RD Pick
Review
From what I have picked here is what I say. One of Allen or Holtby will stay to tandem with another goalie that they get and I would say that Allen stays while Holtby is traded shortly after. Dermott and Giordano would be my best two defenders on the Left side and both start in the top four. Benson would start at whatever AHL team they have this year and would work his way into the lineup before the end of the season while Watson would be a physical bottom six forward and Appleton will be a top 6 forward right from the start.
Starting Lineup
X———X—Appleton
X———X———X
X———X———X
Watson—X———X
Giordano——-X
Dermott——-X
X————-X
Allen
X
Spares
Benson-Holtby
And just a reminder here on the End to End hockey blog I cover all ends of the story. Want to know if Reinhart,Eichel, and Ristolainen want trades you’ll see it here, where will RNH, Hamilton, and Krejci sign the story will be here, how will Seattle construct their team the story’s right here, want live updates on news, Rumors, Free Agency day, The NHL entry draft, and The Expansion Draft then the end to end hockey blog is for you.
And please don’t hesitate to put a comment in the bottom I would love to hear your opinion
Comments
Post a Comment